Prediction Market Expert (AI Research)

About the Role

We're looking for sharp, analytically minded individuals to join a remote AI research project focused on structured forecasting and probability analysis. Your expertise in evaluating real-world events will directly help train and improve AI models that reason about uncertainty.

If you follow geopolitics, financial markets, elections, sports, or major world events — and you think in probabilities — this role was made for you.

• Type: Hourly Contract
• Location: Fully Remote
• Commitment: Flexible hours, work on your own schedule

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What You'll Do

• Assess and forecast the outcomes of real-world, industry, and market events.
• Assign well-reasoned probability estimates grounded in current events and public information.
• Articulate your reasoning clearly and concisely in structured annotation formats.
• Review and evaluate prediction-related data for accuracy and consistency.
• Interpret rapidly evolving news cycles and intelligence signals.
• Maintain high annotation quality across a range of forecasting tasks.

Who You Are

• Strong probabilistic thinker — you naturally reason in likelihoods, not just certainties.
• Up-to-date on current events, market trends, or geopolitical developments.
• Able to articulate your reasoning clearly in writing.
• Detail-oriented and consistent in your analytical approach.
• Familiar with prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus) — a plus, but not required.
• Self-motivated and comfortable working independently in a remote environment.

Nice to Have

• Background in finance, economics, political science, statistics, or journalism.
• Experience participating in forecasting tournaments or prediction platforms.
• Familiarity with Bayesian reasoning or structured analytic techniques.

Why Join Us

• Work on cutting-edge AI research with real-world impact.
• Fully remote and flexible — work when it suits you.
• Freelance autonomy with the opportunity for ongoing contract work.
• Contribute your unique analytical perspective to advance AI reasoning capabilities.
• Join a global community of domain experts shaping the future of AI.